1 How do you expect the Rand will end the year?
Although participants were equally divided, it was the strengthening camp that ended up being correct, although only slighty, as the currency ended November 1,3% stronger, at R18.06/$.
2 When do you expect the first interest rate cut from the Fed?
Although expectations were split down the middle, the much anticipated first cut by 50bps was eventually delivered in September, also leaving the market wondering if it might just be a case of “the first cut is the deepest”
3 When do you expect the first interest rate cut from the SARB?
As two-thirds of participants expected, the first cut of 25bps was delivered in September.
4 Which of the following asset classes do you expect to be the best performing for 2024?
Most expected local equities to come out top, however it was the cryptocurrencies that surprisingly stole the show. Of the more traditional assets, SA property performed strongly, as did gold.
5 Which of the following do you believe to be major themes for the year ahead?
With a relatively decisive win against Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump is back in the White House for version 2.0 from January.
6 Which emerging market region/country do you expect to have the strongest GDP growth in 2024?
As expected, India’s growth is outpacing other emerging markets. Based on the real GDP growth rate expectations from the IMF for 2024 are: China 4.80% | India 7.00% | Latin America 2.10% | Sub-Saharan Africa 3.60% | Other Asia 4.50%
7 What do you expect for the South African elections?
In a historical local election, the ANC lost the majority it has held since 1994. The formation of the GNU looks to be setting South Africa on a (hopefully bright) new path.
8 What do you believe lies in store for the Magnificent 7 this year?
It appears that they have lived up to their collective name. However, the class leader was Nvidia, up 187% year-to-date in USD. Even Tesla, the laggard of the group, made a comeback during November, ending 39% up year-to-date in USD.
9 What is your most outlandish prediction for 2024?
- The bazooka Chinese stimulus that one participant put out into the universe materialised.
- On the election front, those that thought Biden might be bait, and getted swapped out was partially true, as Kamala Harris took his place mid-year as the Democrat candidate. Locally, the outlandish prediction by another participant that ANC would fall well below 43% came to life too, only achieving 40.2% of the vote and thus setting the foundation for the formation of the GNU.
- Gold glistened brightly, as another expected, and Nvidia continued its upward trajectory through the year.
- The US domination, not only in markets, but also at the Olympics, came true too.
As we said at the beginning of 2024, one thing for certain is that nothing is certain, and it certainly proves true that the wildest expectations can come to life!
