"Everyone knows that it’s compound returns over time that matter, and everyone knows that volatility is a drag on compound returns."
“History by and large is the study of surprises, and the irony that people use the study of surprises to try and gain a map of the future causes a lot of disappointment, so when people look back to what investment ideas worked last time, it just doesn’t work that way – markets adapt. Rather, look to how people psychologically react – the behaviours tend to be repeatable.”
“The more debt you have, the narrower the range of outcomes you can survive.” Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital. “The question is, why is the seller anxious? Is the basis transitory or more likely permanent? If transitory, you have a real opportunity. So the key is to find out which companies are value illusions, and which offer real upside.”